Email reprinted in its entirety below.

Hi Tom,

I can’t wait to get the invoice for therapy.  I hope we agreed on a fee.

Hmmm, I may be beyond help.  On Saturday as a follow up to the Seattle Marathon, I ran 36.1 miles of a 50-mile desert trail race with 4,000′ of elevation climb.  It took over 11 hours.  But I did not wear my Rotary Club hat.  Sorry, Pam; you see, running all day in the desert required more sun protection. 

Sue drove out to the waystation on the Arizona Trail and took this picture. Most of the course had no cell phone coverage, so she was worried that the old guy would be found, and eaten by coyotes several days later. 

I definitely need to manage my time, so thank you.  I knew I needed to make these waystations at a certain time or get pulled from the race.  I looked happy in this photo attached, because I made this waystation at the Gabe Zimmerman trailhead (with a 9 hour cutoff) at 8:53 into the race. Whew!  Sue brought me a cold beer and I was off to the next waystation. The two youngsters behind me (upper left of the picture) saw that I had shed some of my gear at the prior aid station, so that I could make this cutoff – so they stayed with me the whole way and thanked me when they arrived a few minutes later. They made that cut off, too. But as we continued the race, the rate of elevation increased…and darkness set in.

As it turned dark, after around 1 1/2 hours after sunset – while running in the dark with my flashlight and a set of spare batteries, I made the next aid station.  There was no crew allowed there, so Sue had driven on to the 39.1 mile waystation at Pistol Hill.  So at mile 36.1, I got pulled out of the race-by-race officials and driven back to the starting line.  Humiliating!  And it is clearly AGE DISCRIMINATION!  I’m ONLY 72!  (Note – I was partially relieved as temps were dropping into the 30’s).  At Pistol Hill where the “beer crew” were allowed, Sue was monitoring the amatuer radio communications that kept asking, “has bib #65 come into your aid station yet?” “Not yet.” “He has now missed the cutoff time for Pistol Hill.”  “We know.”  Of course, no cell phone coverage… so no one knew whether I had been eaten by a bear or fell off a cliff at night… or was simply running my usual race like a bad ass, mean old mutha’ f–ker (excuse my French). 

If I were sane, I’d call that kind of hobby “crazy.”  

Here’s a picture of Joe Diehl after passing under the I-5/Ship Canal bridge (mile 25) during the November 28, 2021 Marathon 26.2 mile race – with his drenched Rotary Cap.  His fifth marathon this year for this 72-years-young Rotarian. 

“I mustered a thumbs up and a smile.  Yeah!” — Joe Diehl

Gene Goldman is Chief Investment Officer & Director of Research for Cetera Investment Management. He is responsible for the strategic direction and continued growth of the firm’s research offerings. Gene has more than 28 years of experience in the development of investment strategies, money manager research and overseeing investment analysts. He is frequently cited in a range of national media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, Forbes, and Reuters and he is a regular guest on high-profile news networks including CNBC and Fox Business News.

Mr. Goldman earned his Bachelor of Science in engineering from Worcester Polytechnic Institute and his Master of Business Administration with a concentration in finance from Northeastern University. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst® (CFA).

Gene presented a firehose of great information. We were lucky to get notes from two members: Michelle Lee and Hal Beals.

Key Points Summary by Michelle Lee

The 2020 recession is the shortest recession after the longest economic expansion on record and it is a service led recession.

We are currently facing quadruple peaks.

1. Peak Economic Growth: GDP growth was 6.7% in Q2 while it was 2.0% for Q3.  Although the growth has slowed down, possibility of recession is <1%.  The causes for the lower growth is manifold:

1. Thermal coal prices in China has skyrocketed causing rolling blackout, thus manufacturing is contracting and limiting products export.  US retailers do not have enough products to replenish their shelves and hence lower sales. 
2. There is less positive data surprise in the US stock markets to propel higher stock prices.
3. Inflation caused by tight labor market and high oil prices.  Oil suppliers are not responding to the pricing signal to make capital investment to increase supply.  They are taking a wait and see approach in view of the clean energy policies.
4. Peak Stimulus

The accommodating monetary policy will be changed.  The Fed will reduce the monthly purchase of treasury and mortgage backed securities from banks gradually (QE tapering).  Gene thinks that QE will end April – June 2022.  He also predicts that the Fed will raise rate twice in 2022.

• Peak Earnings

FactSet forecast that S&P 500 year-to-year earnings growth will drop from 92.4% in Q221 to 3.6% in Q222.  Corporate earnings growth is impacted by supply chain issue and higher labor costs.  For example, P&G has revised its forecast for 2022 supply chain cost from $500m to $1.2b.

• Peak Disruption

With vaccination, labor shortage has eased.  Some of the early retirees start to come back.  Increased of immigration will also help.

The stock market valuation is high, forward 12-month forward P/E at 21.63x comparing to historical average of 16.27x.  We may see correction (<10% down) but not bear market (>20% down) in view of massive stimulus, more reopenings, unprecedented surge in consumer net worth, supply chain problems ease and business cycle dynamics.

Key Points Summary by Hal Beals:

Gene Goldman of Cetera Investment Management’s intention was to calm nervous club members and guests concerned with the current disturbances of the US financial markets. 

He opened with a graph showing the number of months of each economic expansion and recession since the end of WWll. The current expansion has lasted 128 months, the longest in history and the Covid 19 recession of 2020 was the shortest at 2 months.

Today’s disturbances are a reflection of these factors: Economic Growth, Inflation, the Federal Reserve and Washington Disfunction. Other factors are wage increases, labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks  His remaining remarks delved into each.

Economic Growth is slowing. China’s actions on coal purchases, desire to clean their air for the Olympics and falling house prices along with US wage increases, supply chain problems and the fear of interest rate increases is reducing estimates of GDP growth.

Inflation is increasing.  Pent up purchasing funded by the  Covid income stimulus by the government in 2020-21, combined with supply chain problems with more money chasing fewer goods is the cause. It is temporary.

The Federal Reserve functions to control inflation and increase employment. Inflation control is the Fed’s power to increase interest rates that raises the cost of borrowing, home loan and credit card interest.  Students of the Fed think that there is a 98% chance that the Fed will raise rates slowly beginning in 2022.

Washington Disfunction was on the front pages, TV news, and social media for the past 2 months with Senators Sinema and Manchin as the poster children for delay and really big delay in the US Senate to move important bi-partisan infrastructure legislation through.  The two compromised recently and indicated that they are able to compromise for the good of the nation.

As is typical with Wall Street professionals, the longer term message is upbeat because, as in the past, recessions lead to expansions which lead to irrational exuberance which produces another recession.  Live long enough, stay invested, be patient and avoid speculation and all will be well. It is simple, but this Scribe can attest to its wisdom.

The University Sunrise Rotary Club has a tradition of hearing from the Club’s veterans on Veterans’ Day. This year we heard about the service experiences of our members Dave Arndt, Steve Barton, Hal Elner. Ron Espiritu, Lee Raaen, Joe Thomas, Paul Weibel, and others about their experiences serving us and our nation.

Thanks guys!! And welcome home!!

Honoring Members Who Served Our Country

Notes by Joe Diehl

At the Veteran’s Day meeting of the University Sunrise Rotary, member Lee Raaen presented ten of our club’s veterans and had each of them make a short presentation as to their service in our nation’s armed forces.  Lee also collected several historic pictures of these men that were then shared via Powerpoint slides with the membership.

1. David Arndt was a dentist and during his military career, provided dental services to troops as well as to citizens in countries where he was stationed.
2. Paul Weibel became a Morse Code expert and worked in the Army’s security services detail.  Later he joined and served in the reserves for 7 years.
3. Hal Ellner or “Corporal Ellner” wanted to go into aviation but unfortunately he was color blind.  He had an interesting detail and worked in Japan under General Douglas MacArthur.
4. Steve Barton served in Korea for over a year, and traveled there by boat – most others flew in by air. 
5. Ron Espiritu spent 4 years in an ROTC program and became a 2^nd Lieutenant.  He began his service at Oakland Air Force Base and was stationed at Camp Alpha in Vietnam.
6. Ben Porter dove into a legal career as a 2^nd Lieutenant in the JAG corps, stationed at the Presidio in San Francisco and later handled appeals from court martial convictions in DC.
7. Joseph Thomas had a journalism degree from Bradley University and was in the first draft “lottery” – enrolling in officer candidate school and assigned to service at Fort Benning.  His skydiving experience landed him in the airborne tank school and ended up using his journalism skills in his career.
8. Lee Raaen was deployed to Vietnam where he was assigned to a weapons platoon, and became a fire direction expert – aiming mortars in order to target the enemy.  He became a radioman and volunteered to work at an orphanage – which ultimately was overrun by the North Vietnamese.
9. Stephen Gerritson joined the Air Force in 1968 where he was immersed in learning Chinese fluently; he then was assigned to fly with military pilots near the Chinese border to intercept radio communications from the Chinese military and translate them to HQ.
10. Jim Miller served in the Army and then joined the Army reserve, only to be deployed to the Middle East during Desert Storm in 1991.  His entire military career spanned 20 years.

A guest to the Rotary Club meeting was Colonel Sean McCaffrey, son of General Barry McCaffrey who talked briefly about his 26 years of military service.  He retired in 2012 and still does contracting work for the Pentagon.

Rotary Club President Pam Mushen thanked each and every one of these individual for their courageous service and for sharing their stories.

The University Sunrise Rotary club food drive at the QFC in the University Village was a huge success last Saturday, October 30th.

We were blessed with a beautiful sunny day without a cloud in the sky, shining on our seventeen volunteers, fourteen of whom are current Rotary members. Over a five-hour window, covering both entrances of the grocery store, we were able to raise 1,106 pounds of food and $661 in cash donations. Donations benefit the University District Food Bank, and they expressed much appreciation to our Rotary club.

Managers Matt and Jim of the QFC expressed gratitude for our service, as we have now run four food drives at their location over the course of the last 13 months. We hope to organize another event in early 2022.