Jonathan Mayer, Professor Emeritus, University of Washington
It is hard to imagine anyone more qualified to speak about the pandemic. Jonathan Mayer is a Professor of Epidemiology and Geography at the University of Washington. He is an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Medicine, (Division of Infectious Diseases), Department of Family Medicine, and in Health Services, Global Health. He is Program Director, joint degree: MPH in Epidemiology/PhD Biocultural Anthropology.
Program Notes by Hal Beals:
Dr. Jonathan Mayer, Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Washington presented “What’s New with Covid”, his 4th presentation to the club since before and during the pandemic.
The Delta variant was hard to see last spring but by early summer 2021 it was here. Delta accounts for 99.7% of Covid infections and is very contagious. To reach “herd immunity”, 90% of the population must be vaccinated. In Seattle and Western Washington, the peak in new infections and death has passed. Compared to earlier in the year, major increases in infections and deaths are in the northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states, reaching into Eastern Washington.
The Merck Covid 19 pill is being reviewed by the FDA now. In clinical trials it is 50% effective in preventing hospitalization and deaths. Booster shots, especially the Pfizer seem to be effective because the benefits of the 2nd Pfizer shot are reduced after 6 months. Some ethical concerns surround the use of boosters when so many poor nations are unvaccinated compared to wealthy countries
The Moderna vaccine has 3X the RNA than the Pfizer vaccine and is more potent and lasts longer than the Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson vaccines. At 6 months from the 2nd shot, Moderna is 75% more effective than either Pfizer or J & J.
As to the use and effectiveness of masks, Dr. Mayer stated that cloth and bandanna masks are not effective and should not be used. Even the common so-called surgical masks are not as effective as the N-95, KN-95 and KF-94 that block more aerosols and droplets.
Covid will be around for many years to come – like seasonal flu. However, it is much more dangerous and long lasting as it effects every system in the body including the lungs, the heart and the brain. It is deadly.
The club heard from new member, Ted Hunter, who introduced himself.
Ted Hunter
Ted received his law degree from the University of Washington and was trained in mediation techniques at Willamette and Harvard Universities. His trial experience involved representation in land use matters for developers and environmental groups at all levels of the state and federal courts. Mr. Hunter also served as Legal Counsel to the Washington State Legislature on energy and environmental matters.
Ted was selected as the Chief Negotiator for the Legislature in matters involving land use proposals at the U.S. Hanford Nuclear Reservation. He established and is past Chair of the Dispute Resolution Section of the Washington State Bar and is a member of the Association for Conflict Resolution. He is also a member of the American Planning Association and the Washington & American Bar Associations. He is a Land Use Hearing Examiner and Mediator for over twenty cities in Washington State. Ted enjoys marathon running, guitar playing and singing in several groups.
Ted is the son of a preacher, loves baseball, and was heavily influenced by his childhood years growing up in Oregon.
In addition to hearing from Ted, the Club heard from a potential member from Afghanistan seeking asylum in the US.
President Pam Mushen, per her custom, gave us a primer on history. This week she covered the history of women’s voting rights.
New members – please come and help us or come to meet and socialize
October 7th – Octoberfest at Ravenna Brewery at 4:30
October 7th – Seahawk Game Day, Fundraiser for Outdoors for All –Contact Ed Bronsdon at edb@outdoorsforall.org
October 9th – Tiny Home Build, Michael Bronsdon would still like to have 1 – 2 more people – Contact Michael at Michael@bronsdon.com
October 30th – QFC Food Drive for University Foodbank. Isaac sent out a sign-up sheet already. If you have not received it or wish to sign up, contact Isaac at ike2307@gmail.com
November 20th Saturday 2:00 Social Event – Potluck and Pies at Colleen White’s house. We all know how to do a potluck (more details will follow). If you want to go home with a pie, please bring a pie (store bought is acceptable). We will draw numbers to select a pie that appeals to you. A great meal at a fun location and you bring home a pie – you cannot say no to that. Spouses and significant others are invited. Let’s all have a great time.
December 5th – All Club Christmas Party with Santa Claus. Children welcome and encouraged. More information about location and what to bring will be forthcoming. We will also be collecting Toys for Tots. Please bring a new, unwrapped toy for a tot or consider making a $20 donation.
Still in the works:
Tiny Parks Project – Still need to clear up permission with the University of Washington
Dictionary Project – Ron Espiritu may need help delivering dictionaries by the end of October. Currently we cannot make in person presentations.
In the new year, we will try to recreate projects that have worked for us: Teen Feed, Tiny Houses, Food Drive, Outdoors for All
For the new year, the social committee is thinking up new and fun events. If you have any suggestions, contact Colleen White at cjnurse@uw.edu
Suggestions for new service projects: blood drive, adopt a highway or street (Rotaract has already adopted Roosevelt Ave. so maybe we can continue with that project), a Christmas project with Mercy Housing and Solid Ground, and finally a major project creating a permanent rotary structure at a local park. Any other suggestions contact David Mushen at david.mushen@gmail.com
The University Sunrise Rotary Club made gifts recently to the Rotary Haiti Relief Fund and to Solid Ground. Both organizations were kind enough to send us thank you notes which can be found here:
The Club donated $1750 to Solid Ground to help purchase school supplies and sent $2000 to the Haiti Relief Fund to support recovery efforts.
Bruce Harrell served as a member of the Seattle City Council from District 2. He was first elected to the city council in 2007 and was re-elected in 2011 and 2015, and did not run again in 2019. In 2016, he was chosen as president of the city council. He also briefly served as acting Mayor of Seattle from September 13 to September 18, 2017.
Bruce Harrell
Harrell was born in 1958 in Seattle, to an African American father who worked for Seattle City Light and a Japanese American mother who had been interned at Minidoka and worked for the Seattle Public Library. The Harrell family lived in the Central District and Bruce graduated from Garfield High School in 1976 as valedictorian of his class.
Harrell played as a linebacker at Garfield High School, where he was named to the all-Metro team. He went on to attend the University of Washington on a football scholarship, rejecting a spot at Harvard University, and played linebacker for the Washington Huskies football team from 1976 to 1979 (he is still ranked in the top ten all-time in tackles). At the University of Washington, Harrell earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science in 1980 and made the national Academic All-American First Team in football. Harrell earned a Juris Doctor from the University of Washington School of Law in 1984. In 1994, Harrell earned a master’s degree in organizational design and improvement from City University of Seattle.
In 2007, Harrell received the University of Washington Distinguished Alumni Award. In 2012, Harrell won the University of Washington’s Timeless Award Winner, and in 2013 he was inducted into the NW Football Hall of Fame.
After attending law school, Harrell joined US West, now CenturyLink, in 1987. Harrell was chief legal advisor to the Rainier Valley Community Development Fund, chief legal advisor to the First A.M.E. Church and First A.M.E. Housing Corporation, Chief Counsel to US West, and general counsel to the Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity, Zeta Pi Lambda chapter.
In addition to his legislative responsibilities, Harrell serves as Chair of the Puget Sound Regional Council’s Performance First Committee: a business development strategy of PSRC’s Prosperity Partnership; Advisory Board Chair for CASASTART; a focused strategy for youth with behavioral challenges at Seattle Public Schools; and, member of the Social Action Committee for First A.M.E. Church.
It is the policy of the University Sunrise Rotary Club to invite both of the primary winners of selected election races to speak to the club as independent programs. Mr. Harrell’s general election opponent has declined.
Here are the speaker notes from Club Member Scott Jamieson, Jim Miller, and Merrill Mayer:
Mayoral Candidate Bruce Harrell presented at today’s meeting. Bruce is a Seattle native, a University of Washington graduate and a lawyer who’s professional interest centered on telecom issues. Bruce was a member of the Seattle City Council for 3 terms, 2007-2019. He chose not to run in 2019 but decided to enter the race for mayor as he became increasingly troubled by what he saw happening in Seattle. He vows to help Seattle to return to the values that made us a great city by fighting to get Seattle “back to the basics” with his agenda.
Bruce told us that “what we are seeing in Seattle is Intolerable.” People are living in tents and on the street. We have to come up with a “human way to get people into housing.” Seattle currently spends a billion dollars to solve the homelessness problem. Seattle can find better ways to resolve the situation.
Bruce does not support the defunding of the police. He supports a “case management” model in order to provide improved response services. He supports improved training for 911 dispatchers, public safety officers and the traditional “gun and badge” police officers.
Bruce answered questions regarding a variety of issues. Paramount issues included the homelessness crisis in Seattle, where he stated that it is inhumane to have people sleeping on our streets and in tents and assured us that he will work with local/regional authorities to come up with a comprehensive plan to mitigate this problem. He asserted that we have the resources but have lacked the will to tackle this problem. He also made it clear that he intends to protect Seattle’s parks, making them a “safe place for kids to play.” He pointed out that the issue of affordable housing is a secondary yet related problem, resulting in “housing insecurity.” He supports the city’s partnership with various faith community programs regarding the homelessness crisis..
Bruce also addressed the decline into “tribal politics” and promised to work towards a collaborative system approach, especially when dealing with the City Council, who he termed a “thin resume council.” He vowed to work with the council yet promised to be a strong leader. “Parks, police and potholes” was an alliterative term used. He supports having Seattle’s districts have their issues addressed by their district’s elected council member.
Bruce also addressed the (recently extended) eviction moratorium and reviewed the desire of landlords to work with the city, yet noted that they are not being listened to by Seattle’s current administration. He pointed out that he is endorsed by the Rental Housing Authority and that the current situation will result in worse housing availability and affordability issues.
Bruce also favors promoting a healthy business environment in Seattle, resulting in more jobs. He does call for businesses to be good corporate citizens.
Spencer Cohen, principal and founder, High Peak Strategy, LLC
Dr. Spencer Cohen is principal and founder of High Peak Strategy LLC, an international trade and economics research consulting firm based in Seattle, WA. He consults and writes extensively on international trade, China’s economy, industry clusters, and regional economic analysis. Dr. Cohen works with a wide range of clients and stakeholders across the U.S., including port terminal operators, industry associations, law firms, local governments, and business chambers. He has 13 years’ experience in consulting, policy, and economic research. Prior to forming High Peak Strategy LLC, he served as senior economist with a Seattle-based economics consulting firm, where he led and supervised industry cluster studies, regional economic analysis, and international trade policy research. He has also held policy and research roles with the State of Washington.
Dr. Cohen has a PhD in economic geography from the University of Washington. His dissertation examined China’s economic growth model through the lens of land use rights, local government finance, and local state enterprise debt restructuring. He also has an MA in China Studies, also from the University of Washington, and BA in mathematics and history (double major) from the University of Connecticut.
Spencer is a frequent public speaker on issues relating to U.S.-China relations, regional economic recovery, and international trade. He has written opinion pieces in the South China Morning Post, The Daily Guardian (India), Puget Sound Business Journal, and Seattle Business Magazine.
He is a 2021-2023 Public Intellectuals Program fellow with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a 2020-2021 Seattle World Affairs Council Fellow, and Senior Fellow with Infinite Sum Modelling, an economics modeling and research firm whose clients include the World Bank, Asia Development Bank, and various national governments. Beginning this fall, he will also be an affiliate professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Washington.
SPEAKER NOTES BY SCOTT JAMIESON
Dr. Cohen addressed a complex and historically complicated trade relationship with China. The Trump administration changed various (Trans-Pacific) trade agreements with China regarding tariffs, unfair trade policies, etc. As these agreements have had consequences, the ramifications for both countries and the state of Washington have been notable. Tariffs go both ways and the US policy changes resulted in China modifying many trade alliances, seen as counterproductive for both countries. China’s “weaponization” of trade for both economic and political reasons was noted by Dr. Cohen. The trend of increasing trade imbalances with China has continued (for decades) yet the “goods gap” with China has been mitigated by a net export of 37 billion dollars of services from the US to China from 2017-2019. China’s failure to adhere to WTO agreements has further complicated matters and it is unclear if the (bilateral) trade deal struck in 2020 with the Trump administration will be adhered to. Phase 1 of the agreement has already “failed” but the COVID impact on this agreement is likely a factor. Although China’s (adjusted) GDP dropped in early 2020, it rebounded quickly by late 2020. The impact of China’s debt-financed economic growth combined with the (Chinese owned) Evergrande financial crisis is unclear yet will likely be impactful. The US is reacting to China’s policies with ongoing federal measures to improve competitiveness, spur innovation and protect intellectual properties.
The longstanding belief that opening trade borders with China would result in liberalizing China’s internal policies on human rights and spur political reforms has shown not to occur. The humanitarian abuses against the Uyghur (and other ethnic minorities) and the crackdown in Hong Kong illustrate this.
Washington State benefits greatly from US-China trade as “containerized traffic” through our ports, termed the “Pacific Gateway” brings in significant revenues. We also export aerospace products, namely Boeing aircraft, software services, agricultural products and we also benefit from Chinese students attending our colleges and universities.
Ajmal was born in Afghanistan during the pro Soviet regime and then lived under Mujahedin rule. He was about 15-16 years old when the Taliban took over. He personally witnessed and experienced the restrictions and abuses of the Taliban. When he was about 20, he came to the United States. He ultimately came to Washington where he put himself through the University of Washington. He was nominated by the University Sunrise Rotary Club and was selected by the District as a Rotary Ambassadorial Scholar to Russia. He talked about his personal experiences with the Taliban, what he knows about what is happening there today, and what he expects for the future.
Ajmal talked to our club many years ago, just as the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan was beginning. He made quite an impression on the Club and we are delighted–and anxious–to hear from him again.
Presentation notes, Sept. 9, 2021 by Joseph Thomas
Note: Some of the notes are deliberately vague to protect the speaker’s extended family, still in Afganistan.
Today’s speaker, Ajmal, is not a stranger to the Seattle Sunrise Rotary Club. Having emigrated from Afganistan as a young man, he arrived here to attended the University of Washington, where he qualified for the Dean´s List and a prestigious scholarship. With his wide background and superior performance, the Club endorsed him in the District 5030 competition for an Ambassadorial Scholarship. He was selected and studied in Russia, having learned that language because he grew up in Afganistan during the Russian occupation of his native country.
Ajmal’s remarks focussed on the changes in daily life imposed on the population by the Taliban that took over the country within the past month. For men, the fundamentalist Moslems require them to refrain from shaving, follow the Moslem rule of prayers in the mosque five times a day, and the forceful elimination of the Western culture. He mentioned, for example, the armed patrols of Taliban that stop and search private cars for cassettes or CDs of Western music, flinging these “offensive” ítems into the tree branches.
For the women, many of whom were educated as profesionales in medicine and other sciences during the past decades, the imposition of the orthodox Muslem sect eliminates them from those professions. Women now are restricted to their homes and only allowed into the public accompanied by a male relative. The women are hit with sticks for not wearing the required hajab (headscraf), stylizing their hair and other offenses.
With relatives still living in the country, he cautiously suggested that the Taliban leadership will continue to mold the population into a culture living by conservative Islamic codes, stripped of the opening of opportunities afforded during the most recent decades, most especially to the women.
