Dr. Spencer Cohen is principal and founder of High Peak Strategy LLC, an international trade and economics research consulting firm based in Seattle, WA. He consults and writes extensively on international trade, China’s economy, industry clusters, and regional economic analysis. Dr. Cohen works with a wide range of clients and stakeholders across the U.S., including port terminal operators, industry associations, law firms, local governments, and business chambers. He has 13 years’ experience in consulting, policy, and economic research. Prior to forming High Peak Strategy LLC, he served as senior economist with a Seattle-based economics consulting firm, where he led and supervised industry cluster studies, regional economic analysis, and international trade policy research. He has also held policy and research roles with the State of Washington.
Dr. Cohen has a PhD in economic geography from the University of Washington. His dissertation examined China’s economic growth model through the lens of land use rights, local government finance, and local state enterprise debt restructuring. He also has an MA in China Studies, also from the University of Washington, and BA in mathematics and history (double major) from the University of Connecticut.
Spencer is a frequent public speaker on issues relating to U.S.-China relations, regional economic recovery, and international trade. He has written opinion pieces in the South China Morning Post, The Daily Guardian (India), Puget Sound Business Journal, and Seattle Business Magazine.
He is a 2021-2023 Public Intellectuals Program fellow with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a 2020-2021 Seattle World Affairs Council Fellow, and Senior Fellow with Infinite Sum Modelling, an economics modeling and research firm whose clients include the World Bank, Asia Development Bank, and various national governments. Beginning this fall, he will also be an affiliate professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Washington.
SPEAKER NOTES BY SCOTT JAMIESON
Dr. Cohen addressed a complex and historically complicated trade relationship with China. The Trump administration changed various (Trans-Pacific) trade agreements with China regarding tariffs, unfair trade policies, etc. As these agreements have had consequences, the ramifications for both countries and the state of Washington have been notable. Tariffs go both ways and the US policy changes resulted in China modifying many trade alliances, seen as counterproductive for both countries. China’s “weaponization” of trade for both economic and political reasons was noted by Dr. Cohen. The trend of increasing trade imbalances with China has continued (for decades) yet the “goods gap” with China has been mitigated by a net export of 37 billion dollars of services from the US to China from 2017-2019. China’s failure to adhere to WTO agreements has further complicated matters and it is unclear if the (bilateral) trade deal struck in 2020 with the Trump administration will be adhered to. Phase 1 of the agreement has already “failed” but the COVID impact on this agreement is likely a factor. Although China’s (adjusted) GDP dropped in early 2020, it rebounded quickly by late 2020. The impact of China’s debt-financed economic growth combined with the (Chinese owned) Evergrande financial crisis is unclear yet will likely be impactful. The US is reacting to China’s policies with ongoing federal measures to improve competitiveness, spur innovation and protect intellectual properties.
The longstanding belief that opening trade borders with China would result in liberalizing China’s internal policies on human rights and spur political reforms has shown not to occur. The humanitarian abuses against the Uyghur (and other ethnic minorities) and the crackdown in Hong Kong illustrate this.
Washington State benefits greatly from US-China trade as “containerized traffic” through our ports, termed the “Pacific Gateway” brings in significant revenues. We also export aerospace products, namely Boeing aircraft, software services, agricultural products and we also benefit from Chinese students attending our colleges and universities.