Our program on July 9 featured Margy Heldring, Co-Chair of Grandmothers Against Gun Violence.

Margy is a retired clinical psychologist. She has served as clinical faculty in the University of Washington Department of Family Medicine. In addition, she was a health care legislative assistant to two former U.S. Senators: Bill Bradley and Paul Wellstone. She was a senior policy advisor on Bill Bradley’s presidential campaign, and was the founder and Executive Director of the national nonprofit, America’s HealthTogether. She delights in being a thriving grandmother.

Grandmothers Against Gun Violence was formed in response to the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings and is an advocacy group seeking changes in gun laws.

Margy began her presentation by noting that there are several categories of gun violence. The most prevalent is suicide. Other categories include interpersonal events, mass killings (four or more deaths), police shootings, and gang violence.

All of these events, she said, have two things in common: Access to a gun and a person not using the weapon responsibly. The centerpiece of the efforts of the Grandmothers Against Gun Violence is, she said, keeping guns out of the hands of people that shouldn’t have them and correct storage. They are not opponents of the Second Amendment.

Margy noted that, in the wake of the attempted assassination of President Reagan, Congress had passed an assault rifle ban that sunset in 2004. There is no similar law in Washington.

Margy believes that a consensus is developing in Washington to pass legislation. She noted that there had been three gun initiatives in recent years. One requires background checks on gun purchases. Another raised the age for which assault rifles can be purchased from eighteen to twenty-one. A third implemented ERPO (Extreme Risk Protection Orders). She is hopeful that the 2021 legislature might pass bi-partisan law dealing with suicide prevention. There will likely be an effort to ban assault rifles, as well.

Research on gun violence as a public health issue has not been well funded, she said. Grandmothers Against Gun Violence has made funded one study that found that one-third of Washington households have guns. Two-thirds of the households with guns also indicated that the guns were not safely stored.

Margy generously answered a number of questions.

By Hal Ellner, M.D.

The first session of the new Rotary year had a twofold purpose: The matter of race relations and the direction of University Sunrise for 2020-2021.

I. Rotary and Race: There is no question that recent events have forced us to look within ourselves. Equality, covertly and overtly denied over generations, needs channels for its assertion.

Where can our Club make a difference? Some organizations that we might support are Scouting, Dads, Big Brothers, and Boys and Girls Clubs.

Phill Briscoe suggested parenting programs and mentorship. He went on to point out that our lines of thinking date back to our early history. Even our Constitution excluded black persons at a time when a third of our population had been slaves. Europeans were encouraged to come to offset the balance.  Since then, discrimination had been ingrained within white people. He gave examples of demeaning thoughts and expressions. 

Note: Phill has done a lot of work on this topic, which he has posted on his website: https://www.phillbriscoe.com/. (I had trouble accessing his site with the Chrome browser, but it worked fine from Microsoft Edge and on my phone (Safari).

Comment: Apropos of Phill’s point concerning how we have  been made to think, an Afro-American colleague once remarked, “It may sound strange to you, but I feel more comfortable in the south. I know how they feel toward me. They are honest about it. In the north, they may say one thing but think quite another.”

It was apparent that this inspired a lot of thought. Some comments concerned the need for education, the imperative that we explore our own experiences,  a need to make us more aware, and what we should do next in regard to community outreach.   President Tom stated that we should make our club membership more diverse. He also spoke of a zoom meeting for dialogue on the subject.

II. The Prezz: Goals for 2020-21: Further discussion ensued about priorities for the Club during the upcoming year.

• We will be the best club possible.
• The website will be enhanced.
• Our already good program selection will be revved up.
• Social Media presence will be augmented.
• Annual dues will be decreased for now.

Trivialis et Jovialis

On vacation, a woman and her husband had to make an emergency visit to a dentist.

“I want a tooth pulled,” the woman demanded. “And don’t bother with the novocain either, because we are really in a hurry. Just take out the tooth and we’ll be on our way.”

The dentist was impressed. “You’re certainly a very brave woman! Which tooth is it?”

The woman pushed her husband forward. “Show him your tooth, dear.”

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Tom and Clark are standing on the roof of their building drinking a few beers on their break when Clark says, “Hey Tom. did you know that if you jump off this building, after you get down so far, a draft will pull you back inside the building on the third floor?”

“Get outta here,” says Tom.

“I’m serious. Watch me,” Clark says. Clark hops off the building and sure enough, he is taken in by the draft through the third floor window. He takes the elevator back to the top and Tom is standing there in awe. 

“I can’t believe it,” says Tom.

“I know. You should try it. 

So Tom hops off and plunges to the ground.

A doorman working below sees Tom splat to the ground and screams back up, “Superman, you’re a real jerk when you’re drunk!”

Our program on June 25, 2020.

Jesse Pacem is an Environmental Health and Safety Consultant that helps companies, large and small, build and improve their environmental, health, and safety programs.  He develops and delivers in-person and online training.  He works with hospitals and biotechnology companies on personal protection and disposal of hazardous materials. He has a BS in Environmental Science from the University of Washington and a Master’s Degree in Public Health from Tulane.  He has overcome the severe disability of growing up with Club member Dave Mushen.

Jesse Pacem is clearly very concerned about the threat that COVID-19 continues to be. In the Club’s thirteenth Zoom meeting, Jesse presented sobering epidemiology statistics on risk profiles.

For people that are older, the risks become enormous. According to the latest data, for individuals that are 80 or older, 40 percent of those that contract the disease are hospitalized and 30 percent of them do not survive. For individuals that are 60-79 years old, 30 percent of those that contract the disease are hospitalized and ten percent of them do not survive.

Underlying conditions, which are not always known to the patient, have make these statistics worse. Individuals with underlying conditions are hospitalized six times more frequently and are twelve times more likely to die.

These risks are much more favorable in the young. For those aged nineteen and younger that contract the disease, only 2.5 percent are hospitalized and fatalities are almost non-existent. For people aged 20-39, five percent are hospitalized and deaths are also almost non-existent.

The contagiousness of the disease, however, make if very serious for all age groups.

Further, said Jesse, much of the data suggests that a significant portion of individuals that contract the disease may have no or limited symptoms–they may not know that they are sick. For most people, symptoms occur on day five–but this may occur for twelve days following transmission.

Yakima, he noted, is of concern. The current rate of transmission, if maintained, would result in eighteen percent of the population becoming sick. We do not fully understand why the experience in Yakima is different or why other regions have lower transmission rates. Hence, there is a need for all regions to be very cautious.

For the future, Jesse noted:

• Zoom meetings are saving lives. He was very complimentary of the Club’s caution with regard to in person meetings and recommended that we not return to in person meetings until Phase IV.]
• The opening of schools is “a really difficult matter.”
• Day care, schools, bars, restaurants are to be avoided, particularly prolonged exposure. We should limit all indoor contacts and outdoor crowds.
• Nine feet distancing is better than six feet. New data published in the medical journal, The Lancet, confirms that distancing is highly effective, improving odds by 82% per meter.
• Wear a mask. The Lancet publication confirmed that risk is reduced 77 percent when both parties where a mask.
• Eye protection was shown to be very effective in hospital settings.
• Wash your hands.
• Avoid buffets.

Our program on June 18, 2020. General McCaffrey provided slides, which you can find here.

Barry McCaffrey is a former United States Army General and current news commentator, professor and business consultant who served on President Clinton’s Cabinet as the Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy. He received three Purple Heart medals for injuries sustained during his service in Vietnam, two Silver Stars, and two Distinguished Service Crosses — the second-highest U.S. Army award for valor. He was inducted into U.S. Army Ranger Hall of Fame at U.S. Army Infantry Center at Fort Benning in 2007. He served as an adjunct professor at U.S. Military Academy and its Bradley Professor of International Security Studies from 2001 to 2008. He received West Point Association of Graduates of the United States Military Academy’s Distinguished Graduate Award in 2010.  He is currently a military analyst for NBC and MSNBC as well as president of his own consulting firm, BR McCaffrey Associates.  He serves on many boards of directors of national corporations. He is an outspoken advocate for insurance parity, for drug courts and veterans’ courts, and is a frequent speaker at conferences.  In March 2018, he claimed that United States president Donald Trump was under the sway of Russian President Vladimir Putin and that this was a dangerous threat for the security of the United States.

“There is a sound argument that the United States has never been more secure than it is today.”

So began Barry McCaffrey’s comments to the University Sunrise Rotary Club this morning. We have 2.1 million men and women in uniform, he said, and the most advanced military technology in the world. We are one-to-two times more ahead of all national rivals.

Challenges, however, exist, primarily around the issues of Weapons of Mass Destruction including nuclear, chemical, biological, and cyber threats. We need more leadership in Congress on these issues.

Nuclear technology is widely available and has been on the Internet for thirty years, but it is hard to build nuclear weapons. Chemical weapons are easy to build, but very unstable and not very good weapons. (“Anyone who can make beer, can make chemical weapons.”)

These weapons are, however, very effective for terror purposes.

China, he said, is our only real threat. Russia is a now a third world nation whose only assets are oil, natural gas, and its nuclear arsenal.

U.S. anti-terror efforts have kept the nation ‘pretty safe,’ but at a cost in casualties and treasure.

Unlike other parts of the world (notably Europe), immigrants in America have not posed a terror threat as they are almost all loyal Americans.

North Korea, he said, is a crime syndicate run by a family with a single motivation–staying in power. They spend one-third of GNP on national defense–ten times that of most nations. Their air power, however, is almost a joke. Their navy is potentially a greater threat. The North Korean army is malnourished with a horrible discipline problem. They are a challenge, though, as they may have sixty nuclear weapons and ability to build more.

General McCaffrey graciously answered all questions offered.

June 11, 2020, Thursday. 730-830 a.m.

Joe Sky-Tucker, MSW, is President and CEO of Business Impact NW. Joe has over twenty years’ experience working in the nonprofit world in a variety of positions and organizations including direct experience working with at risk youth and families in crisis, fund development, and strategic planning. Business Impact NW is an asset building/community lender that specializes in supporting small and micro-businesses and helping them to achieve financial stability.  Joe has also worked with “at-risk” youth in mental health settings including working with foster care youth, children in locked psychiatric settings, and group homes.  Joe Sky-Tucker has a Masters in Social Work from the University of Washington.  He lives in Seattle.

Joe Sky-Tucker and Business Impact NW are on the front lines of the economic misery that has been imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a non-profit bank, the mission of Business Impact NW is help build the community. They do that by lending to small businesses, hoping to support them until they “graduate” to commercial banks in Oregon and Washington. They make loans in amounts as small as $5,000 and up to $35,000. They are financed by both private and government funders.

In the pandemic thus far, they have made 65 loans totaling $3 million in the past few months. A normal year, Joe said, would see around 70 loans totaling $3.5 million.

Small businesses are hanging on “for dear life.” Many are open in name only now. Some analysts, said Joe, think fifty percent of small businesses will be gone in the 18-24 months that a recovery will require.

In retrospect, the ‘canary in the coal mine’ back in January were truckers. Imports from China began to drop that early, impacting small trucking businesses that sought help from Business Impact NW.

Over the long term, Joe forecast, transportation may change the most. Autonomous vehicles, plus transportation companies like Uber and Lyft are poised to continue to make huge changes in the way we transport goods and people. This will have a big impact on immigrants, he said, as they often take their first jobs in America this field.

Small businesses are very resilient, he said. Some businesses, such as restaurants, will come back strong. The biggest changes will be in retail, where online business was already doing great damage to traditional brick-and-mortar businesses.

Our program Thursday morning, May 28, 2020, was presented by Susan Champlain, Director of Government Operations, Boeing Company.

“Strange times.”  Susan Champlain began her presentation to the Club with great understatement, particularly for the Boeing Company.  The company, still our state’s largest employer, has faced enormous challenges in the last year and continues to work through them.

Today, Boeing employs 71,000 people in Washington.  The Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Boeing Capital Corporation divisions of the company are headquartered here.  The 777, 767 Dreamliner, 787, 777XS, 737 Max, and 747-8 are all built here.  Approximately half Boeing’s employees are located in Washington and the average salary is $124,500.

Susan addressed the two “horrible” 737 MAX accidents that were “devastating” to the employees of the company. The plane has been grounded now for over a year.  The company is hopeful that the certification process will be completed in the third quarter of this year.  Production of the aircraft halted in January of 2020; but new production will begin again shortly.  But there are 400 737 MAX aircraft currently parked awaiting delivery to customers.

There were “serious mistakes” that lead to this situation, she said.  The company erred in understanding how pilots would react in a very stressful situation.  She believes that, once certified, the revised 737 MAX will be one of the safest planes in the air.

Equally concerning to the company is the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic.  US airline traffic is down more than 90 percent from last year and “airlines are suffering mightily.”  While Chinese air travel has begun to recover, it is not expected that recovery will become complete for three years.  There are currently 16,000 jets parked and out of service.

Boeing has reacted to these challenges through two large layoffs.  Four thousand employees left the company voluntarily, but the company recently announced an additional 6,000 involuntary layoffs.  There may additional layoffs.

The light at the end of the tunnel is that aviation, historically, has been incredibly resilient:  It always come back. 

To aid in the comeback, a consortium of manufacturers, airlines, regulators, and academics have begun working on significantly enhancing the safety of flying.  People need to feel safe when they are flying and the consortium is working on innovations like UV lighting and antimicrobial surfaces on planes.

Susan took questions from the membership, but did not comment on Hal Beal’s announcement that he had recently purchased Boeing stock.  Several members were quite knowledgeable about the great variation in the stock price, which, some said, might be a buying opportunity.

Susan expressed optimism about the future of the company, but, clearly, there will be a long road to recovery.

Presentation by Jonathan Mayer, Professor Emeritus, University of Washington, to the University Sunrise Rotary Club. May 14, 2020

COVID-19 continues to be a dire public health risk.  It might never go away.

Globally, there are 4.4 million confirmed cases and nearly 300,000 deaths in 188 nations.  In the US, there are nearly 1.4 million cases and over 80,000 deaths.

The US will reach 100,000 deaths in a few weeks.

These numbers are most certainly low as some regions have limited data.  These regions include developing parts of the world and regions where testing has not been robust such as the United States.

An elevated cause for concern in the US, is increasing numbers of cases per capital in rural areas.  Yakima County is a “real concentration” in Washington State.  The Navaho Reservation and Four Corners area of the US Southwest, as well as Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming, and North Dakota have become areas of increasing concern.  As of this date, COVID-19 remains “way under-reported.”

Urban areas remain hot spots.  This includes Detroit and Chicago, as well as the entire corridor from Washington, DC to Boston.

The good news is that curve is flattening and the rate of increase in reporting of disease is diminishing.

But Dr. Mayer expects the pandemic to continue to plague humans until there is population “herd”) immunity (estimates for this virus are when about 60% of the population becomes immune from exposure) or an effective vaccine is being used.

We do not know if there is a seasonality aspect to COVID-19 yet.

No one in the medical community thinks that this will burn out.  It is likely, at some level, to be with us forever.

Dr. Mayer discussed several of the ongoing research efforts to find effective therapies and vaccines.

Hydroxychloroquine: While there has been anecdotal evidence that this might be effective, the clinical studies thus far are “really disappointing.”  Published research in the New England Journal of Medicine and the Journal of the American Medical Association do not demonstrate effect on reducing mortality or need for ventilators.  There is still no definitive word on the therapy, he says, but concerns about side effects and the lack of positive research recently have made it very difficult to recruit patients into the clinical trials that could demonstrate effectiveness conclusively.  This was the medication that was optimistically discussed by the President.

Remdesivir:   While Dr. Anthony Faucci has called remdesivir a “game changer,” the published data so far does not yet support that conclusion.  This could be an important new therapy.  New data is expected to become known over the next several weeks which will help make that determination.

Convalescent Plasma: This therapy has shown mixed results with nothing definitively yet proved.

Vitamin D:  There are no definitive studies with regard to its impact on COVID-19.  Vitamin D does impact the immune system, but it is dubious if mega-doses will work on COVID-19.  Still, Vitamin D supplements are “probably prudent” for most people at latitudes such as Seattle.

Vaccines:  there are over one hundred vaccines in development.  There are no vaccines that are imminent.  In fact, Dr. Mayer lamented, we do not understand the immunology of this virus yet.  It is certainly not known yet at the level where a vaccine, when approved, will be effective:  50% of the population?  98% of the population?

There is no credible scientific evidence that the coronavirus was engineered in a Chinese laboratory.  It is most likely that it originated from a bat virus that spread into humans.  But, he said, the epidemiology of the disease and the habitats of the likely source suggest that disease was much more widespread within China than has been reported.

“I think we can move forward,” said Dr. Mayer, “toward a more normal life.”  But he suggested important safeguards. First, changes in restrictions should be based on the science. Second, far more testing is needed and fast. third, contact tracing could be a very important tool in limiting the spread of the disease, if combined with isolation of the infected.  This will require, nationally, one hundred thousand trained workers.

Maybe it is time, he said, to let low risk individuals—people in the twenties and thirties, for example, go back to work—with assurance that they will not be in contact with high risk individuals.

Conclusion:  Dr. Mayer was fantastic.  He is incredibly knowledgeable about this topic and has the rare ability to communicate a complex topic to an audience.  His talk was sobering, particularly with regard to the belief that the virus was not going to disappear—and that a vaccine might not be the panacea for which we hope. It might be a long road ahead of us.

At our online meeting on April 6, 2020, longtime member Tom Ranken reviewed the book “Bowling Alone” by Robert D Putnam, Professor of Public Policy of Harvard. Written 20 years ago, the book deals with the decline of social organizations in US society. A compelling and challenging book, the author argues that the infrastructure for social interaction has been devastated in the last fifty years (including Rotary Clubs). He discusses the reasons why, then makes a very persuasive case that this has done enormous harm. An update of the book is due this year. The themes discussed were stimulating and challenging. Here’s a link the PowerPoint presentation : Bowling Alone.